Universal’s The Fall Guy isn’t so strong, and nobody is really shocked.
While it was projected to do at least $30M, and it’s coming in at $28M, this is the range for original action comedies, even when they star Ryan Gosling. PostTrak exits report he’s 50% of the reason why people went to see the movie (versus 35% for Emily Blunt).
The opening for Fall Guy is actually on the higher end of Gosling starts, ranked third after anomaly Barbie ($162M) and Blade Runner 2049 ($32.7M), yet further down on Blunt’s. It’s looking like her tenth-best opening of her career stateside, short of Edge of Tomorrow ($28.7M) and Jungle Cruise ($35M with an asterisk – it did have a theatrical day-and-date PVOD on Disney+).
So, what gives? Why is Fall Guy playing like a deflated balloon, even with a great A- CinemaScore and 90% positive on PostTrak?
First, yes, we’re still in an uneven marketplace and won’t be out of it until we have more movies toward the end of the month into June, leading up to Inside Out 2 on Father’s Day weekend. The entire box office weekend is totaling around $73M, off 55% from the same frame a year ago, when Disney/Marvel Studios had Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 leading summer’s charge with $118.4M.
But in Fall Guy, despite how well it plays with audiences (SXSW crowds were belly laughing), there’s nothing that screams “rush to this,” despite Universal showing off the fun and the romance in its campaign. It’s too inside Hollywood, and these types of movies never play to an uber-wide crowd, despite how accessible the studio and filmmakers have tried to make it. “Why do young people want to see this movie?” challenges a film finance source.
Most of all, for an original event film at $130M-$150M+, this movie is too damn expensive.
“They should have spent like Tom Rothman: Make it for $80M. Why is Universal spending the extra money? Instead of spending $220M-$230M between production and marketing costs, they could have pulled this off for $160M-$180M,” added the source.
‘Challengers’Everett Collection
In addition, even though it’s not glaring, Amazon MGM Studios’ Challengers is stealing the younger women away from this Gosling pic. The Luca Guadagnino-directed, Zendaya- starring tennis rom-com is down -42% in weekend 2 with $8.7M, and a running total by Sunday of $30.55M. Women under 25 were the lowest to show up yesterday for Fall Guy at 13%, with men over 25 leading at 38%, women over 25 at 33% (who gave the pic its best grade of 93%) and men under 25 at 16%.
Some marketing sources are dinging the Fall Guy brand. “Nobody under 60 remembers that show!” However, I don’t think Universal sold the movie on that, and studios have shown before that they can take an antique TV property and turn it into a mega franchise. Hello, Mission: Impossible and Tom Cruise. What Gen Xer had actually watched Mission: Impossible back in the late ’60s? Not me, I wasn’t around then.
Great movies can ascend their brand.
Fall Guy‘s best play areas are the West and Mountain regions. AMC Lincoln Square is currently the top-grossing venue for the pic with $55K in the till so far. IMAX and PLFs are driving 44% of Fall Guy‘s weekend.
Largest quad for the David Leitch-directed movie is 25-34 at 25%, with diversity demos seeing 52% Caucasian, 25% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black, 10% Asian, and 5% other.
Universal, given the love for the film among older women, believes it will leg out. Look, $100M domestic isn’t out of the realm of possibility, especially with these exits. But Fall Guy could drop into PVOD by Memorial Day weekend.
With 8% Rotten Tomatoes critical reviews and 52% audience scores, as well as C- CinemaScore and 59% PostTrak on Sony/Screen Gems’ Tarot, you didn’t need a psychic to see that the Culver City lot wasn’t going to spend one more dime in marketing this movie. Hence the $6.25M opening here on this single-digit budgeted title. The PG-13 movie is 52% female leaning, with 18-34 year old repping 67% of the audience. Those 18-24 were the biggest demo at 40%. Diversity demos were 38% Latino and Hispanic, 30% Caucasian, 16% Black, 9% Asian, and 7% other. Tarot‘s best regions are the South, South Central, and Midwest, with the Cinemark Rialto the highest grossing location so far with close to $6K (eek).
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Other sundries….
Viva’s Dragonkeeper in Spanish and English opened in 760 theaters with meh grosses for what’s looking like $250K for the weekend. The animated indie kids film is set in ancient China and follows a young girl who must find the last remaining dragon egg and fulfill her destiny.
Sundance Institute
A24’s I Saw the TV Glow from Jane Schoenbrun, about two teenagers who bond over a supernatural TV show, but then it’s mysteriously cancelled, did some good numbers with $54K yesterday from AMC Lincoln Square, Angelika NY, AMC Burbank, and AMC Grove in what’s shaping up to be a $119K 3-day, or near $30K per theater. Muy bien. Critics love it at 88% certified fresh.
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1.) Fall Guy (Uni) 4,002 theaters, Fri $10.4M, 3-day $28M/Wk 1
2.) Challengers (AMZ MGM) 3,477 theaters, Fri $2.5M (-60%), 3-day $8.7M (-42%)/Total $30.55M/ Wk 2
3.) Star Wars The Phantom Menace (20th) 2,700 theaters, Fri $2.4M, 3-day $7.2M, Total lifetime $481.7M/Wk 1 re-release
4.) Tarot (Sony) 3,104 theaters,Fri $2.5M 3-day $6.25M/Wk 1
5.) Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (Leg/WB) 2,884 theaters (-428), Fri $1M (-41%) 3-day $4.2M (-42%)/Total $187.7M/ Wk 6
6.) Civil War (A24) 2,689 (-829) theaters, Fri $977K (-49%) 3-day $3.4M (-50%), Total $61.9M/Wk 4
7.) Unsung Hero (LG) 2,832 theaters,Fri $870K (-76%), 3-day $3.1M (-59%), Total $13.2M/Wk 2
8.) Abigail (Uni) 2,638 (-755) theatres, Fri $680K, 3-day $2.3M (-56%)/Total $22.7M/Wk 3
9.) Kung Fu Panda 4 (Uni) 2,380 (-387) theaters, Fri $510K (-39%), 3-day $2.2M (-39%), Total $188.1M/Wk 9
10.) Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (Sony) 2,025 (-602) theaters, Fri $405K (-49%) 3-day $1.63M (-27%), Total $109.7M/Wk 7
FRIDAY MIDDAY: Universal’s The Fall Guy is coming in a little light right now at $10.4M today, including previews, for what’s looking like a $28M opening at 4,002 theaters, below its $35M projection.
Many aren’t shocked: This is where action comedies open, and Fall Guy isn’t that far from the $30M starts of Paramount 2022 adventure rom-com The Lost City and David Leitch’s previous movie, 2022’s Bullet Train. But damn, was Fall Guy, for this concept, expensive at $130M after Australian tax credits. Some have heard the production cost was even higher at $150M.
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